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Forecast Comparison Tests

Pairwise and multivariate tests for comparing the predictive ability of forecasting methods.

dm_test()
Diebold-Mariano Test for Equal Predictive Ability
cw_test()
Clark-West Test for Predictive Ability of Nested Models
enc_new()
Clark-McCracken ENC-NEW Encompassing Test
mse_f_test()
McCracken MSE-F Test for Equal Forecast Accuracy
gw_test()
Conditional Equal Predictive Ability (CEPA) Test

Superior Predictive Ability

Tests for whether a benchmark method dominates all competitors, unconditionally, conditionally, or jointly across forecast horizons.

spa_test()
Unconditional Superior Predictive Ability (USPA/SPA) Test
cspa_test()
Conditional Superior Predictive Ability (CSPA) Test
csms()
Confidence Set for the Most Superior (CSMS) Forecasting Method
uspa_mh_test()
Uniform Multi-Horizon Superior Predictive Ability Test
aspa_mh_test()
Average Multi-Horizon Superior Predictive Ability Test

Predictive Regression & Instability

Tests for predictability with persistent regressors and parameter instability.

ivx_wald()
IVX-Wald Test for Predictive Regressions
qll_hat()
Elliott-Muller Test for Time-Varying Coefficients

Visualization

Plotting tools for CSPA test results.

cspa_test_plot()
Plot CSPA Test Results

Simulation

Data generating process from Li, Liao, and Quaedvlieg (2022).

do_sim()
Simulate Data from the CSPA Paper DGP
print(<cspa_test>)
Print Method for CSPA Test Results
summary(<cspa_test>)
Summary Method for CSPA Test Results

Datasets

Datasets bundled with the package.

rossi2006
Bilateral Nominal Exchange Rates (Rossi, 2006)
rz2013
Equity Premium and Macro Predictors (Rapach & Zhou, 2013)
nrtz2014
Equity Premium and Technical Indicators (Neely, Rapach, Tu, & Zhou, 2014)
rrz2016
Equity Premium and Short Interest Index (Rapach, Ringgenberg & Zhou, 2016)
cm2001
US Unemployment and Inflation (Clark & McCracken, 2001 setup)
hl2005
IBM Volatility Forecasts and Realized-Variance Proxies (Hansen & Lunde, 2005)
gw2006
SPF Mean CPI Inflation Forecasts (Giacomini & White, 2006 setup)
wg2008
Welch & Goyal (2008) Annual Equity-Premium Dataset
quaedvlieg2021
Loss-Differential Path Forecasts from Quaedvlieg (2021)
llq2022
S&P 500 Realized-Variance Forecasts (Li, Liao & Quaedvlieg, 2022)
llq2022_jnj
Johnson & Johnson Realized-Variance Forecasts (Li, Liao & Quaedvlieg, 2022)
llq2022_uv_cspa
Pairwise CSPA Rejection Counts Across 28 Stocks