Quarterly mean Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) forecasts of annualised CPI inflation at horizons \(h = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4\) quarters ahead, aligned with realised CPI inflation from FRED. The panel covers 1981Q3 onward, the start of the SPF's CPI survey.
Format
A data frame with 180 rows and 10 columns:
- date
First day of the third month of the realisation quarter (
Date).- year, quarter
Realisation quarter.
- infl
Realised annualised QoQ CPI inflation (percent), computed from quarterly averages of
CPIAUCSL.- infl_lag
One-quarter lag of
infl— the naive random-walk forecast benchmark.- spf_h0, spf_h1, spf_h2, spf_h3, spf_h4
SPF mean forecasts of
infl, made \(h = 0, \dots, 4\) quarters in advance.
Source
SPF mean CPI inflation forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters. Realised CPI from FRED series CPIAUCSL, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL.